Market Analysis 06/19/2021

Summary Of Yesterday

Yesterday Bitcoin had a negative performance reaching a daily high at $38,258 and a daily low at $35,129 falling almost 8,2%. It’s not really clear what pushed this dump phase yesterday, as we had different parameters making Bitcoin bearish. Like the DXY (US Dollar Index) rising heading a resistance range between 92–94 or the fact that we’ve placed almost 23,000 short futures since June 7th. I have tweeted some charts yesterday providing the supports and resistances as showing by different data, like the ask/bid structure at futures or the order structure in the Binance order books.

Expectations For Today

Let us count the facts before I start to make some predictions for today.

• We have closed almost 3,000 shorts yesterday after the dump, but we still have almost 20,500 shorts pending. My interpretation here. Even if we go up a bit, heading $36,500, we’re not done with dumps yet, and I would expect more dumps following this weekend or at least next week.

• Right now we are moving between, what I would call, a key zone. So, to leave this zone we need more volume. It doesn’t matter if up or down, without a big volume we will maintain there.

• We are forming a death cross in my 2H chart. This one is, in my opinion, accurate, as it had an impact June 7th (death cross) and June 13th (golden cross). If we maintain that zone and make some moves heading 34.8k again, we should get a death cross in the next days causing another dump, as it did June 7th.

• As usual after such a dump phase, we will make a correction forming an uptrend. That’s happening at Bitcoin right now. So, if you check yesterdays RSI, we were oversold for 4 hours. It was obvious that after we reached $34,800 we would go up again. That’s something usual, but it doesn’t mean that we are done here. The market needs to take a breath now.

• Let us see the pending (SPOT) order books related to BTC/USDT pair at Binance.

SELL ORDERS
- At $25,000 the biggest one with 712 BTC
- At $30,000 the second biggest with 715 BTC
- At $20,000 the third biggest with 498 BTC

Taking in account our current BTC price, our next support here is at $33,000 with almost 400 BTC waiting

BUY ORDERS
- At $41,900 the biggest one with 570 BTC
- At $41,000 the second biggest with 425 BTC
- At $40,000 the third biggest with 415 BTC

Taking in account our current BTC price, our next resistance based on the order books is here at $37,000 with almost 100 BTC waiting.

I would say, we could move in a range between $33,000 and $37,000. But that’s is just an orientation. Those order books are not accurate and sometimes orders disappear or change on price levels. So, like Fibo, that’s for me much more a simple method to see what other market actors are expecting.

As next we should check the future structure and also, just in case of Bybit, the Order Books related to them Perpetual Contracts.

• Bybit Perpetual Order Books BTC/USDT Pair

SELL/SHORT ORDERS
- At $36,300 the biggest one with almost 1,500 BTC
- At $37,000 the second biggest with 485 BTC
- At $37,200 the third biggest with 425 BTC

Of course as closer to the current price as much volume you will get. So, The most important orders here are those above or below the current price range (+/- $1,000 to $500). Bybit future traders are expecting a pump reaching $37,200 soon.

BUY/LONG ORDERS
- At $36,000 the biggest one with 1,400 BTC
- At $34,800 the second biggest with 500 BTC
- At $34,500 the third biggest with almost 300 BTC

Also here, not accurate, Just to get a feeling of the market and what market actors are expecting. Also here a range between $34,800 and $37,000.

• Last but not least, we are going to check the Ask/Bid strucure at FTX to see, where our walls are located, where should we expect a bounce and where a pump or dump.

We see a big activity at a price level at $36,300. So for me that means, to cross $36,300 should be a challenge without a big volume or at least to trigger some short liquidations that let is cross this area. If we would cross that wall, pump should follow.

Also on a level at $36,000 we can detect big activity. So, to summarize, the range between $36,000 and $36,300 shows a big activity and could prevent to let BTC cross this area.

On the other side, we only had a high activity at $33,600. Expecting here to let bounce BTC in case we would dump today even more. As mentioned on twitter, if we cross that wall, more dumps will follow (non-stop nuke) until we reach the next wall at $30,000.

So, my expectations for today are…

We should maintain a level between $34,800 and $36,300 if nobody is going to pump or dump hard here. A good range to make a good and quick gain. We need to keep observing the market and how it reacts in terms of volume. Only the volume is key here. If we notice a rising volume something is happening. So like right now, Bitcoin went up almost reaching $36,500 to let it fall afterwards back to $35,600, rising the volume. So, for me that’s a bearish sign. Market actors are ready to sell at $36,500 and buy at $34,800 as long nobody initiates a strong pump or dump.

So, as usual follow my golden rules.
1. Have a plan and stick to it!
2. Never ever let you guide by fear!
3. Don’t regret it!

Only these rules will make you a successful trader. All these information I have provided are reflecting my opinion. Of course you can add more data to have a better picture of the market situation. In future I will add more data to the analysis. So, related to these informations provided try to make a plan, and only trade based on it. Good luck and enjoy your weekend!